Executive snapshot (why Berkshire’s 2024 playbook looks so different)

Sources: “Berkshire Hathaway Premium Changes by Region – Personal Lines –Since 2022”, “Berkshire vs Peers vs The Rest – Premium Changes by Region –Since 2024”, and state-level companion files.

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Berkshire vs. peers since 2024 – the outlier strategy

Region-level filings filed after 1 Jan 2024 show Berkshire carving out avery different path from the “big-4” peers (State Farm, Progressive, Allstate,Liberty Mutual) and from the long-tail “Other” group:

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Observation: while competitors are still pushing mid-single-digit increases to cope with continued loss-cost inflation, Berkshire’s filings are flat-to-down in the East & Midwest and only modestly positive elsewhere.  That restraint follows two very aggressive post-pandemic years (2022-23) when Berkshire rang up a cumulative +6-8% in every region, front-loading a lot of margin recovery earlier than peers.

Strategic takeaway: Berkshire appears to be harvesting the goodwill of last cycle’s increases and using price stability as a retention / share-grab lever just as rivals’ renewal notices remain elevated.

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What changed between 2022-23 and 2024?

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Berkshire has de-risked its rate plan almost everywhere, implying that the company:

1. Believes its 2022-23 hikes already offset loss-severity pressure (especially bodily-injury severity that peaked in 2023).
2. Prioritizes retention while competitors remain in the rate-cycle upswing.
3. May be betting on favorable re-underwriting (tighter segmentation, usage-based endorsements) to defend margins without headline rate.

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State-by-state drill-down (filings dated 2024-YTD)

Top ten upward moves

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Top ten downward moves

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What the pattern says

• Targeted relief in large “growth” states (TX, GA) but surgical cuts in high-loss, high-churn states (PA, CO, LA).
• California stands out: a single +25% filing, but on a narrow book—likely a niche program or retro-rating segment designed to restore profitability after the 2022-23 moratorium environment.
• Flat filings in 9 states signal a deliberate wait-and-see posture where Berkshire feels its 2022-23 head-room is still adequate.

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Why this matters for competitors

• Timing advantage: having moved early (2022-23), Berkshire can now pause, advertise “stable prices,” and exploit competitors’ sticker shock.
• Selective aggressiveness: the company still pushes double-digit hikes where actuarial indications are unavoidable (e.g., Nevada bodily-injury severity).
• Capital deployment: the $0.29B of premium affected in 2024 is < 3% of what Berkshire touched in the prior two years, freeing bandwidth to funnel capital into new-business growth instead of DOIs.
• Regulatory optics: rolling back or flattening rates in the East & Midwest may curry favor with departments that earlier approved sizeable hikes.

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Watch-list items & next steps

1. Monitor SERFF dockets for follow-up filings in TX and NV; if Berkshire pursues a second-round increase, peers may need to match to avoid adverse selection.
2. Keep an eye on Pennsylvania: A −7% cut suggests profitability is solid; expect switching activity from carriers still raising rates.
3. Loss-cost trend vs. margin: If frequency or severity re-accelerates in H2-2025, Berkshire’s restraint could compress margins faster than peers that are still “pricing ahead of trend.”

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Bottom line

Berkshire Hathaway used 2022-23 to push through industry-leading increases (≈ +6.5% on nearly $10B of premium).  Having banked that cushion, it is now the only top-five auto writer leaning into price stability—cutting or freezing rates in 34 of 45 state-level filings in 2024.  The strategy should lift retention and new-business flow in the near term, but competitors need to decide quickly whether to preserve margin (and risk share) or follow Berkshire down the slope in the next renewal cycle.